Leila's Lines- Week 4

Polls:

Sample of 1000 registered voters:

Biden: 52.0% Trump 42.9%

Biden has a 9.1 point lead-- 1.5 points lower than last week’s lines

Trump approval rating: 42.6% approve (5.4% down from last week’s lines) while 53.6% disapprove (2.6% up from last week’s lines)

States with close races:

• North Carolina: Biden: 49.4% Trump: 46.5%

• Ohio: Biden: 46.5% Trump: 47.9%

• Florida: Biden: 49.0% Trump: 45.7%

• Georgia: Biden: 47.6% Trump: 46.6%

• Iowa: Biden: 47.3% Trump: 47.2%

• Texas: Biden: 47.5% Trump: 47.6%

• Arizona: Biden: 48.7% Trump: 46.0%

• Pennsylvania: Biden: 50.4% Trump: 44.7%

3 Things Affecting Voter Turnout:

Final Presidential Debate:

The candidates faced off for their second and final debate on Thursday, October 22nd. There was a noticeable difference in the rhetoric employed in this debate as compared to the first one, which may be credited to the muted microphones. Candidates were given very clear times to speak, and if they spoke out of line, their microphone was muted. This allowed for a much more balanced conversation instead of what we saw during the first debate: Trump’s continued interruptions of Biden. I noticed, in alignment with his actions from the first debate, that Biden continued to look directly at the camera to make rather profound claims whereas Trump shied away from direct eye contact with viewers.

With that being said, I still don’t think the debate had a significant influence on voters. While it was in fact the last time that the candidates will be broadcasted in such a widespread manner before the November 3rd election, debates generally have little impact on voters-- especially when they’re so close to the election. Furthermore, with the push for early voting and vote by mail, many Americans had already cast their ballots before the debate.

Post-debate polls show a change in the candidates’ net favorability ratings; both candidates’ ratings increased by 2%. Before the debate, Trump’s favorability was 36% and rose to 38% while Biden’s was 50% and rose to 52%. Furthermore, polls show that 68.7% of people thought that Biden’s performance was “good” while only 51.8% of people thought the same of Trump’s performance. In terms of policies, 60.2% of people thought that Biden’s presented policies were “good” while only 43.8% of people thought the same of Trump’s policies.

While polls are showing that Biden’s performances are fairly successful, that does not mean that he is a secured winner. This could still be a close race as shown by the swing states which account for a hefty portion of the electoral votes.

Trump’s Chinese Bank Account:

News has recently surfaced about Trumps’s secret Chinese bank account. Many democrats such as Buttigieg and Obama have openly addressed the contradictory nature of this bank account. Obama said, "Can you imagine if I had a secret Chinese bank account?"

During the debate, Biden addressed the bank account issue. However, Trump retaliated by saying that he was simply a businessman doing business. Furthermore, he argues that “everybody” knew about the accounts and that they were closed in 2015, which are false claims. The New York Times reported that the accounts do not appear on Trump’s public financial disclosures. Because they are held under company names, the identities of the financial institutions remain unclear.

I’m not sure that this will have a huge impact on voters either. I strongly believe that anybody who is anti-Trump and pro-Biden will just be that much more enthusiastic about their vote, but I think Trump supporters will continue to believe Trump and go along with his businessman facade, protecting him from public scrutiny.

Amy Coney Barrett's Hearings:

During Amy Coney Barrett’s confirmation hearings, she remained extremely non-partisan, offering little opinion on how she would rule on certain cases. Most nominees going through the confirmation process remain quiet on their potentially controversial views as to not offends Democrats and Republicans, so her behavior wasn’t necessarily unheard of.

She did not offer an opinion on how she would rule abortion cases, Obamacare cases, gun control cases, and pretty much anything that would spark a genuine reaction from either party. Even though she did not vocalize her views during the hearings, we can look at her track record to formulate educational guesses about her standings on these pertinent issues. In the past, she has aligned herself with anti-abortion groups and she issued several conservative rulings while on the appeals court. It’s clear that she would reside on the more conservative side of the 6 Republican judges.

Because of the lack of opinions expressed throughout the hearing, I don’t think the actual hearing will have an impact on voter turnout, Rather, I think that people who want a conservative judge and were undecided will lean more towards Trump.

All in all, however, polls show that 45% of Americans want the winner of the 2020 election to nominate the next judge while only 28% want Trump to fill the seat.

In Other News:

Record Early Voter Turnout:

There have been 58,776,882 early ballots cast thus far. Out of those, 39,789,419 have been mail-ins and 18,987,463 are from in-person voting. Nationally, the early votes compose 42.6% of total ballots cast in 2016!!! While early voting has proved to be an effective method for people to have their vote counted, there is still both voter intimidation and disenfranchisement. For example, a Miami cop in full uniform wore a Trump mask while voting, making for an uncomfortable atmosphere at the voting place. He has since been charged with violating department policy, but the fact that he showed up to vote with his gun, uniform, and Trump mask is a sheer act of city-funded voter intimidation. Furthermore, people have had to wait in immensely long lines; Johnta Austin and his family waited 11 hours in line to vote in Georgia.

Second Wave:

As COVID-19 cases in Chicago are back on the rise, the mayor has put in new restrictions. The city was seeing around 300 new cases a day, and now there are upwards of 500 cases a day. Will we go into phase 3? I’m not sure, but these restrictions are peeling back much of the freedom that we’ve recently felt.

• Bars and restaurants can no longer host tables of 10 people; they can now only have 6 people or fewer at a single table

• Indoor gatherings are limited to 10 people

• Indoor stores and restaurants can only have 25% capacity

• Non-essential businesses must close by 10 p.m.

• The last call for alcoholic beverages is 9 p.m.

• Bars without a food license may not operate indoors whatsoever

• People must wear face coverings indoors and outdoors