Leila's Lines- Week 1

Sample of 1000 registered voters:

Biden: 50.1% Trump 43.2%

Biden has an 7 point lead

Trump approval rating: 46% approve while 53% disapprove

States with close races:

• North Carolina: Biden: 47.5% Trump: 46.4%

• Ohio: Biden: 47.9% Trump: 46.9%

• Florida: Biden: 47.9% Trump: 46.3%

• Georgia: Biden: 45.9% Trump: 47%

• Iowa: Biden: 45.8% Trump: 46.6%

• Texas: Biden: 45.8% Trump: 47.7%

• Arizona: Biden: 48.5% Trump: 44.9%

• Pennsylvania: Biden: 49.7% Trump: 44.8%

3 things that will affect voters:

What’s on the line with a Supreme Court vacancy?

If Trump is able to appoint another conservative justice to the Supreme Court, there will be an immense imbalance of ideologies. Six justices will have primarily conservative mindsets, only leaving three liberal justices to protect the civil liberties and freedoms of marginalized people. Such a drastic majority of conservatives judges will allow for the conservative ideals to prevail in every case, endangering people’s core rights. Roe V. Wade could be overturned. More broadly, gender equality, voting rights, protection from discrimination, criminal justice issues, immigration rights, tax laws, and access to healthcare are some of the many topics which are on the line right now.

The November 3rd ballot is more than voting for Biden or Trump. Civil liberties are at play, and Americans must vote for the protection of marginalized people’s rights. The effects of a 6-3 court will be felt for decades to come due to their lifelong position.

How will this affect voters?

More liberal leaning voters who previously would’ve refused to vote based on disagreements with both candidates could begin to “settle” for Biden. Voting for Biden is a vote for a liberal justice, allowing civil liberties and citizen protections to see another day. People who don’t feel Biden embodies the liberal perspective well enough may now show up to their voter precinct ready to cast their vote for him simply because the state of the Supreme Court.

However, there’s also something to be said about conservative voters. Conservatives who have felt the negative effects of Trump’s COVID-19 mismanagement might have previously opted out of voting for him. Yet with the vacancy on the court, they may be once again attracted to him out of pure desires for a 6-3 Supreme Court. Many think that his record of confirming 2 conservative justices during his presidency is one of his biggest accomplishments, and these people will be more than happy to see such a confirmation happen again. Therefore, we may see people who initially peeled away from Trump go right back to him in November.

Wildfires along the West coast with effects felt nationwide:

Scientific American has, for the first time, endorsed a president: Joe Biden. Joe Biden, among others, has claimed that the devastating wildfires- a clear indication of climate change- will worsen under a continuation of the Trump administration.

As opposed to Trump who refuses to listen to scientific facts to shape his policies, Biden has offered fact based solutions to the climate crisis. As Trump slashes programs which would protect us from mass devastation of future pandemics and withdraws the US from WHO, Biden explains his future plans which he will implement if elected. Biden wants to spend $2 trillion on an emissions-free power sector by 2035, promote solar and wind power, create research agencies to work on safe nuclear power, among other plans. Through these efforts, he claims he will create two million jobs and provide energy benefits to historically disadvantaged communities.

When people vote in November, they, once again, aren’t just voting between Trump and Biden; Americans are voting on a future for the world, mitigating the destruction of climate change.

Middle East Peace Accord:

Trump allies have claimed that Trump’s diplomacy will be of particular interest to Jewish voters: key voters in swing states like Florida. While most Americans aren’t concerned with international affairs and are more worried about economics and the pandemic at home, all it takes is a handful of people in a swing state to vote for Trump and win him the state. This peace agreement may be able to do just that.

It’s important to note that a recent poll conducted by the Jewish Electorate Institute cites that American Jews are more in support of Biden than Trump; the poll shows that 67% of American Jewish voters support Biden while 30% support Trump. So how much could this agreement really bolster Trump’s winning capabilities? Some Trump supporters believe that Trump was able to do something previous presidents have been unable to do for decades: be a peacemaker in the Middle East. This portrayal of the events could lead people to be in support for him not just because they agree with his stance but also because of the right wing media’s display of him being an international diplomat, ready to enact peace. We can clearly see from the violence and destruction he has fostered, though, that he is not a peacemaker by any means.

All in all, this agreement could lead the few people necessary in swing states to vote for Trump, ultimately winning him that state. While polls still represent the majority of American Jews voting for Biden, all it takes is a few people in a swing state to be influenced by the peace accord and vote for Trump.

In other news:

Is Mitch McConnell a hypocrite?

In 2016, when Obama had 9 months left in his presidency, there was a Supreme Court vacancy. Sound kind of familiar? Well, Obama nominated Merrick Garland to fill the seat, but the Republican majority senate did not pass the nomination. McConnell said that a president who has such little time left in their term should not be able to fill the seat. But here we are, in a similar situation-- except we aren’t down to months before the election; this is a matter of days. Another difference between 2016 and now is that there was a guaranteed new administration after Obama, and, as of now, there’s no guarantee of a Trump successor. In good news, two republicans have already publicly explained that they will not confirm a nomination until after inauguration: Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. If all democratic senators vote against nomination before inauguration, it will take 2 more Republican senators to come out against moving forward.

Fair Tax in Illinois:

On the November 3rd ballot, Illinoisans will be asked to vote for more than just candidates. The Fair Tax Amendment will change the taxing system from a flat tax rate to a graduated one. Essentially, those with higher incomes will pay more taxes than those with lower incomes. Proponents and the government say this would be the fairest way to get the necessary funding for the state. The specific text which will be printed on the ballots reads as follows:

“The proposed amendment grants the State authority to impose higher income tax rates on higher income levels, which is how the federal government and a majority of other states do it. The amendment would remove the portion of the Revenue Article of the Illinois Constitution that is sometimes referred to as the “flat tax,” that requires all taxes on income to be at the same rate. The amendment does not itself change tax rates. It gives the State the ability to impose higher tax rates on those with higher income levels and lower income tax rates on those with middle or lower income levels. You are asked to decide whether the proposed amendment should become a part of the Illinois Constitution.”

Arguments for:

• It’s immoral to make low-income citizens pay such a large portion of their income in taxes while wealthier people pay a much smaller percentage of their income in taxes.

• The current tax system doesn’t raise enough money, causing cuts to social services.

• Provide tax relief to most Illinoisans

Arguments against:

• Gives way to potential higher taxes on the middle-class and harm middle-class business owners

• Gives politicians more money without accountability

• Politicians would be given power to raise taxes